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Okay, this is the most common question in this forum (and most probably everywhere else). People like to know
You can't know when you'll get invited, and simply put, the more point you have the more chance you have for an earlier invitation.
On application processing time:
The current cut-off date is 3 months for both 189 and 190 subclasses, also no distinction between on-shore and off-shore applicants.
However, the cut-off date is only an indication, it varies a lot from case to case. In my personal experience, I have seen processing time varied from 1 month up to 2.5 years.
Another thing is, no news is a good news. Don't get impatience if you don't receive any feedback from your CO, because if something rings a bell, they definitely ask you for clarification.
- When I'll get the invitation?
- Any chance for me to get an invitation with XX points?
- How long it takes to get an invitation?
- etc. etc.
- DIBP does not release enough data for a reliable forecasting.
- The invitation process (minimum points, number of invitations per round etc.) varies occupation to occupation. So, it is possible for a certain occupation to have invitation at 60 points while another high demand occupation stuck at 70. And because, DIBP does not reveal the occupation-wise statistics (except few high-demand occupations), it is not possible to know what chances you have for your occupation.
- DIBP also does not reveal how many pending applications are in the pipeline. So, even with the knowledge of minimum points for a few occupations, you can't simply deduce your chance because you don't know how many people are actually waiting in the queue.
- Lastly, it also depends on how many new applications are going to be submitted between now and next invitation rounds, and how many of them will have more points than you. Again, there is no historical data available which enable us to model the new submission probability, so we just can't say when or whether.
- If someone actually comments on your chance, remember, they are, at best, doing that based on the members reporting in their forums about invitation, which is a tiny tiny subset of the real invitees. So, that is not something with a very strong base, and hence we don't do such thing.
You can't know when you'll get invited, and simply put, the more point you have the more chance you have for an earlier invitation.
On application processing time:
The current cut-off date is 3 months for both 189 and 190 subclasses, also no distinction between on-shore and off-shore applicants.
However, the cut-off date is only an indication, it varies a lot from case to case. In my personal experience, I have seen processing time varied from 1 month up to 2.5 years.
Another thing is, no news is a good news. Don't get impatience if you don't receive any feedback from your CO, because if something rings a bell, they definitely ask you for clarification.